Visualising Disability Benefit Appeals

From April 2009 to March 2018 3,211,514 social security and child support decisions have been appealed to an independent tribunal. These appeals are heard by Her Majesty’s Courts & Tribunals Service (HMCTS). 2,650,943 of those appeals have been on disability benefit decisions, 82.5% of the total. Of these, 852,488, or 47.4%, were successful. However, the success rate on appeal has gone up over time. From April 2017 to March 2018, disabled people won 67. [Read More]

The Onterrible politics of the NDP

I’m back in Ontario (and Canada) for the first time in roughly 3.5 years to find the province in the midst of a pre-election phony war. The election isn’t until 7 June, and the official election period hasn’t even started yet, but the campaign has already started to get underway, particularly as the party most likely to win the election – the Progressive Conservatives – have just elected a new leader when their old leader resigned after a series of allegations of sexual misconduct. [Read More]

Coffee and Freedom

Does coffee make us free? Do free people drink more coffee? The European enlightenment has been linked to the introduction of tea and coffee from Asia and the Middle East and the rise of coffeehouse culture, as it displaced beer and wine as the daytime drink of choice, and as people were no longer slightly drunk all the time, they began to ask more critical questions about the societies they were living in. [Read More]

Golf and train stations

Last summer, Alasdair Rae at the University of Sheffield wrote a blog post showing that about 0.54% of the UK is golf course. It’s not much, Rae described it as roughly the same area as Greater Manchester; although in comparison it is roughly twice as much space as urban parks (0.27% of the UK), and more than four times as much as the amount of continuous urban fabric (0. [Read More]

Economic Participation and Productivity

Yesterday afternoon (December 6th, 2017), Finance Minister Philip Hammond sparked alarm and condemnation for suggesting that the UK’s stubbornly low productivity rate was due to the high employment rate and larger numbers of disabled workers. His exact quote was: It is almost certainly the case that by increasing participation in the workforce, including far higher levels of participation by marginal groups and very high levels of engagement in the workforce, for example of disabled people – something we should be extremely proud of – may have had an impact on overall productivity measurements. [Read More]

Disabled people and voting trends

I’ve been playing around with panel data from the British Election Study,1 looking at how disabled people voted in the 2016 EU referendum and the 2017 General Election. I’ve previously posted the graphs on Twitter, but these ones look a bit nicer, and I’ve included more independent variables in the regression table of disabled votes in the 2017 General Election. 2016 EU Referendum Disabled people voted to leave the EU; in the case of people with more severe disabilities, over 60% of people voted leave. [Read More]

Housing Prices and Transport Accessibility

Transport for London has produced this brilliant dataset on Public Transport Accessibility Levels (PTAL). It uses the walking time to transport services, the frequency of those transport services, the number of different servicse available, etc, to produce a score and a banding level for every part of London, including for every Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) in London. I was curious how this matched up with housing prices, so I grabbed price paid data from HM Land Registry and set off. [Read More]

Thinking critically about ME research

The laziest kind of statistical research is that which relies solely on presenting the results of statistical tests, without making any meaningfull effort to critically interpret the results. Prima facie acceptance, without critical inquiry, leads to noise being misidentified as meaningful, to bad science and bad policy. With that in mind, it is worth taking a look at an article by Crawley et al. (2017) published on 20 September 2017 in Archives of Disease in Childhood , investigating the effectiveness of the Lightning Process for children with myalgic encephalitis (ME, also known as Chronic Fatigue Syndrome or CFS). [Read More]

A review of the "Opportunity for All" essay collection

Last week the Learning and Work Institute and the Shaw Trust published a collection of 11 essays titled “Opportunity of all”, on the challenges and opportunities involved in getting more disabled people into work and closing the employment gap between disabled and non-disabled people. You can download the full collection here, but I wanted to pick out several things from the essay and from the panel discussion that launched the collection that Kate Pieroudis and I attended. [Read More]

At the British Museum

I finally got the chance to visit the British Library’s exhibit Russian Revolution: Hope, Tragedy, Myths, one of several shows by cultural institutions attempting to cash in on the hundredth anniversary of the Russian Revolution. One of the previous exhibits at the Royal Academy, was criticised by various Leftist types, typically for excising Trotsky or misrepresenting the events of the October revolution. Personally, I would have preferred the Royal Academy been more explicit about their attempt to recreate the 1932 exhibition in Moscow, and put more effort into explaining what different pieces of art were and why they were important. [Read More]